![]() how the final score indicates they performed. Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how teams actually performed vs. We're not saying the team that suffered the bad beat should have won, just that the scoreline was unflattering compared to their expected performance given the game situations encountered. so be sure to check out the math behind the NFL Bad Beat Rankings.įor a quick synopsis, we're looking at Expected Scores and comparing them to Actual Scores. We’re discussing bad beats not in terms of a win or loss, but in terms of win probability swing. We can also use Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, to look at bad beats. Unlucky teams meeting our luck criteria are 7-8-2 ATS in 2023 and 106-62-6 overall since 2018 in luck-based matchups. ![]() 500 in the luck total category, but the Steelers once again proved to be lucky in covering at home. Bears on Thursday night - and one luck ranking matchup - Packers vs. There were two Luck Rankings totals this week - Colts vs. Every week of the 2023 NFL season, we’ll recap how Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our new NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
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